No Silver Bullet: Essence and Accidents of Software Engineering

A 1986 report arguing that no single development will make software ten times cheaper.

Author
Frederick P. Brooks, Jr., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Published
September 1986
Kind
Technical report version of a landmark essay
Original
www.cs.unc.edu/techreports/86-020.pdf
Subject
Software design

What it is

Frederick Brooks wrote this as a University of North Carolina technical report. It asks whether any one advance could give a large gain in software productivity. It examines past breakthroughs and then current candidates. It says skepticism is not pessimism: disciplined effort should still yield an order-of-magnitude gain.

What it says

What evidence it gives

The report rests on argument and examples of past advances in languages, time-sharing and environments. It refers to unnamed studies on designers and on off-the-shelf packages. It draws on the author's classroom experience with growing software. It presents no new data.

Interests and limits

The report dates from 1986. Its views on Ada and expert systems concern that period. Its AI section covers speech and image recognition and rule-based expert systems. It sees real value in expert systems for spreading good practice. Its predictions are the author's opinion. The text came from a PDF, so a few words are garbled.